Pick 'em lines are where the vig hides in plain sight. When a sportsbook sees two teams as evenly matched, the "fair" price for each side is +100 — bet $100, win $100, collect $200 total. But you almost never actually see +100 posted. Instead, both sides get shaded to -105 or -110, and that gap between the true even-money price and what the book charges is exactly how the house gets paid.
What is a pick 'em bet and why isn't it really +100?
A pick 'em — sometimes listed as PK on the board — means the sportsbook views both sides as evenly matched and sets odds near +100/−100. In practice, books shade those lines to -105 or -110 on each side. At -110, you're wagering $110 to win $100, which implies roughly a 52.4% win probability. Add the implied probabilities for both sides of a -110/-110 market and you get about 104.8% — that 4.8% overage is the vig. The book profits whether your side wins or loses, because the math is baked into every ticket sold. For a deeper look at how that commission works across all bet types, see Vig (Juice) in Moneyline Betting: The Hidden Cost Every Bettor Pays.
How do you calculate the real implied probability on a pick 'em line?
At true even money (+100), each side carries an implied probability of exactly 50%. Once the book shades to -105, the implied probability on that side rises to about 51.2%. At -110 it jumps to 52.4%. Neither figure reflects an actual edge for the sportsbook's opinion on the game — it's purely the cost of placing the bet. To understand how to convert any posted number into a win percentage, Implied Probability: What Your Moneyline Odds Really Say walks through the full formula.
Does the vig on pick 'em lines change by state?
Yes, and meaningfully so. Some states see standard pick 'em odds shaded to -115 or even -120 rather than -110, largely because higher state tax structures force books to widen their margin to protect profitability. A bettor in one of those markets is paying a noticeably steeper surcharge for the exact same bet. Check the legality and available operators in your state before signing up — online sports betting is not yet fully operational in every US market.
| Posted Line (Each Side) | Implied Probability Per Side | Combined Overround | Vig Approximation |
|---|---|---|---|
| +100 / +100 | 50.0% | 100.0% | 0% |
| -105 / -105 | 51.2% | 102.4% | ~2.4% |
| -110 / -110 | 52.4% | 104.8% | ~4.8% |
| -115 / -115 | 53.5% | 107.0% | ~7.0% |
| -120 / -120 | 54.5% | 109.1% | ~9.1% |
Why does the shading matter if both teams are equal?
Because your break-even rate rises with every fraction of a point the line moves away from +100. At -110 you need to win 52.4% of your pick 'em bets just to break even — not 50%. Over a long season that extra 2.4% is a real drag on your bankroll, not a rounding error. Understanding How American Moneyline Odds Actually Work makes this relationship between price and break-even rate much clearer.
How do you fight the vig on pick 'em games?
The single most practical move is line shopping. When a pick 'em is posted at -110 on one book and -105 on another, taking -105 every time saves you money on every single bet — no prediction required, no edge needed on the game itself. Over hundreds of bets, that difference compounds. Line Shopping for Moneyline Odds Across FanDuel, DraftKings & More covers exactly how to set up accounts at multiple books and make this part of your routine. No strategy eliminates the vig entirely, but reducing the price you pay for each bet is the closest thing to a free lunch in sports betting.
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